Terrorist Attacks Region Wise

Published Date: 02 Nov 2017

"The establishment of NCTC is not a State versus Centre issue but will work as a vehicle of country's combined efforts to curb terrorism".

-Prime Minister Manmohan Singh [1]

1. The data for the study was collected through various sources to analyse the efficacy of NCTC. Quantitative analysis of data was carried out for generation of results. The data were collected and analysed in three parts.

Global. The data on terrorist acts maintained by US NCTC since 2005-

2011 and available in NCTCâ€™s annual Report on Terrorism

(b) Indian Specific. The Data maintained by Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India on terrorist incidents that occurred in Jammu and Kashmir and North East regions during year 2001-2011.

Global

2. The US NCTC was formed in 2004 to ensure that government agencies have access to the intelligence necessary to realise their assigned missions. NCTC therefore provides statistical information to the Department of State (DOS). It also assists DOS in compiling its annual Country Reports on Terrorism (CRT) [2] and also NCTCâ€™s Annual NCTC Report on Terrorism (NRT).

3. US NCTC uses the Worldwide Incidents Tracking System (WITS) to record statistical information on terrorist acts. This data then becomes the US governmentâ€™s authoritative and unclassified database on terrorist acts available for reference. [3] The primary task of WITS is to provide terrorism statistics to the DOS for finalisation of its annual report. The WITS database contains approximate 85,000 incidents occurred worldwide. WITS data is updated on a quarterly basis.

4. The statistical data for analysis is collected from terrorism incidents occurred during 2005 to 2011 and reported in open source information. This data helps in classifying the incidents into the following [4] :

(a) Attacks in different region.

(b) Types of attacks.

(d) Attacks against facilities.

5. Terrorist Attacks. It is evident from the Table 1 that terrorist attack increased from 2005 to 2007 and thereafter gradually reduced during 2008 to 2011. Compared to 2005, attacks were increased to 192 percent in 2007. However since then they reduced by 69 percent in 2008, 67 percent in 2009, 58 percent in 2010 and 43 percent in 2011.

TABLE 1: TERRORIST ATTACKS

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Attacks

11800

20492

22719

15708

15310

13186

9793

Source: US NCTC Reports on Terrorism 2005-2011

6. Region Wise Attacks. Data concerning region wise attacks is tabulated in Table 2. It is evident that South Asia is badly affected by the terrorist attacks. Similarly Western Hemisphere is least affected by these attacks. In South Asia the terrorist attacks continuously increased from 2005 to 2011, highest being in 2011. This indicates that terrorist attacks increased by 165 percent in 2011 as compared to 2005. In 2011, East Asia & Pacific and Europe & Eurasia region experienced less number of terrorist attacks as compared to 2010.

TABLE 2: TERRORIST ATTACKS REGION WISE

Region

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Africa

1253

422

835

718

853

879

978

East Asia & Pacific

1007

1036

1429

978

821

728

543

Europe & Eurasia

780

659

606

774

737

704

561

Near East

4230

1755

7540

4594

3297

3416

1148

South Asia

3974

3654

3607

4354

4847

5537

6573

Western Hemisphere

967

826

482

352

444

340

480

Source: US NCTC Reports on Terrorism 2005-2011

7. Type of Terrorist Attacks. The data is tabulated in Table 3. Bombing, armed attacks and kidnapping are the preferred type of attacks used from 2005 to 2011. However it is pertinent to note that suicide attacks increased from 287 in 2006 to 5283 in 2007 after which it is on decline path. A fire bombing and assault type of attacks indicate decrease trends.

TABLE 3: TYPE OF ATTACK

Type of Attack

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Armed Attack

5657

7031

7962

599

4842

4833

4290

Bombing

3280

3874

4543

4131

4050

4275

4150

Kidnapping

1462

1578

1460

1125

1039

1283

978

Unknown

159

430

219

247

709

898

638

Fire Bombing

575

574

639

535

650

707

614

Assault

408

430

550

451

479

444

345

Suicide

--

287

5283

405

299

263

279

Source: US NCTC Reports on Terrorism 2005-2011

8. Type of Weapon. Various types of weapons used for terrorist attacks are tabulated in Table 4. Improvised Explosive Device (IED), fire arm, explosive and firebomb are the preferred weapons used for attacks. IED use increased by 331 percent during 2005 to 2009 and thereafter it reduced to 11 percent in 2010 and 86 percent in 2011. During 2011 a decrease trends in all types of weapon observed.

TABLE 4: TYPE OF WEAPON USED FOR ATTACK

Type of Attack

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

IED

6922

12606

1673

21629

22976

20565

3747

Firearm

5079

3820

8287

7319

6609

6491

3713

Type of Attack

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Explosive

3295

8022

13572

15307

12864

15227

3541

Unknown

415

382

213

1673

808

881

1165

Firebomb/Incendiary

590

382

680

1544

813

6491

615

Missile/Rocket

378

1528

1029

1491

1018

613

392

Grenade

1724

1146

1411

2332

2587

2649

358

Vehicle Bomb

6964

6494

16526

8588

11120

7643

351

Mortar/Artillery

1207

2674

5394

7319

2535

2907

306

Source: US NCTC Reports on Terrorism 2005-2011

9. Victims of Attacks. The data on victims of attacks is tabulated in Table 5. Civilian, police and military forces were the prime victims of attacks. Attacks against civilians increased from 8056 in 2005 to 14636 in 2007. However in subsequent years it indicated decreasing trend. It is important to understand that attacks against military and security forces increased by 3 percent in 2010 and 2011 as compared to 2009.

TABLE 5: VICTIM TYPE

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Military/Security Forces

1079

1236

1554

1711

1334

1378

1389

Government

1014

1030

822

556

755

537

768

Children

464

618

963

816

826

663

755

Unknown

127

179

233

198

375

679

527

Other Types

547

618

932

550

710

403

484

Business

226

618

474

429

290

327

358

Politically Affiliated

254

206

198

227

223

255

166

Police

6500

3296

3836

2528

2379

2088

2423

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Civilian

8056

12772

14636

9566

8905

7313

6418

Source: US NCTC Reports on Terrorism 2005-2011

10. Attack against Facilities. The data is tabulated in Table 6. Public, transportation, residence and energy infrastructure were the preferred facilities for attacks. Attack against transportation facilities continuously maintained an increased trend till 2010 which subsequently reduced in 2011. It is important to know that after maintaining a decline trends for four years (2007-2009), attacks against energy infrastructure again increased in 2011.

TABLE 6: ATTACK AGAINST FACILITIES

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Public

464

712

921

846

767

701

2186

Transportation

2314

2759

2921

2837

2823

3004

2644

Police

456

356

489

279

351

309

358

Other Types

844

890

993

889

1660

1035

1242

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Government

346

356

342

332

593

453

Critical/Energy Infrastructure

361

445

336

339

285

299

438

School/Educationist

247

267

285

194

264

283

297

Residence

786

1068

1170

1007

881

1053

2056

Military

221

267

173

231

175

151

154

Source: US NCTC Reports on Terrorism 2005-2011

11. The data placed in tables is not only provide information on terrorism but also reflect trends in terrorist attacks. Critical analysis of these trends would assist in pin pointing the philosophy of terror organisations that will guide planners in developing effective counter strategies against them. The tracking of terrorist incidents will assist in building knowledge bank on peculiar/specific characteristics, trends and likely, tactics that surround terrorism. This knowledge bank than would help intelligence agencies in carrying advance analysis and research. The sole aim of following incidents as they occur is to maintain global awareness of the unrelenting threat that terrorism poses and listing the requirements to initiate strategies for curbing its growth.

Indian Specific

12. The Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India closely and continuously monitors the security situation with State Government and Ministry of Defence. It also maintains a data bank on the terrorist incidents occurred in India.

13. Jammu and Kashmir. The State of Jammu & Kashmir (J & K) has been affected by terrorist and secessionist violence. It is believed that violenceâ€™s were sponsored, directed, supported and controlled from the agencies situated across the border. The statistical details of terrorist incidents from the year 2001 are shown in the Table 7.

TABLE 7: TERRORIST INCIDENTS IN J & K

Year

Incidents

Security personnel Killed

Civilian killed

Terrorist Killed

2001

4522

536

919

2020

2002

4038

453

1008

1707

2003

3401

314

795

1494

2004

2565

281

707

976

2005

1990

189

557

917

2006

1667

151

389

591

2007

1092

110

158

472

2008

708

339

2009

499

239

2010

488

232

2011

340

100

Source: Annual Reports 2001-2011 Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India

14. The infiltration from across the borders and the terrorist activities in the Kashmir showed a significant decline. The incidents of terrorist violence declined from 4522 in 2001, 1990 in 2005 to 340 in 2011. The number of security forces killed declined from 536 in 2001, 189 in 2005 to 33 in 2011. The number of civilians killed also declined from 919 in 2001, 557 in 2005 to 31 in 2011. The number of terrorists killed declined from 2020 in 2001,917 in 2005 to 100 in 2011. Hence it can be opined that the internal security situation in India in 2011 showed distinct signs of improvement over the previous years.

15. Infiltrations. The reported infiltration attempts in J & K since 2001 is indicated in the Table 8. During the period from 2001 to 2011, infiltration attempts have indicated a downward trend (exception in year 2005 and year 2010). The number of infiltration attempts in 2011 is 247 as compared to 489 in 2010. This indicates that infiltration incidents were reduced by 49.5 percent from the last year.

TABLE 8: INFILTRATION ATTEMPTS IN J & K

Year

Incidents

2001

2417

2002

1504

2003

1373

2004

537

2005

597

2006

573

2007

535

2008

342

2009

485

2010

489

2011

247

Source: Annual Reports 2001-2011 Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India

16. North Eastern Region. The terrorist incidents in North Eastern Region are given in Table 9.

TABLE 9: TERRORIST INCIDENTS IN NORTH EASTERN REGION

Year

Incidents

Security personnel Killed

Civilian killed

Extremist/Terrorist Killed

2001

1335

175

600

572

2002

1312

147

454

571

2003

1332

494

523

2004

1234

110

414

404

2005

1332

393

405

2006

1366

309

395

2007

1489

498

472

2008

1561

466

339

2009

1297

264

239

2010

773

232

2011

627

100

Source: Annual Reports 2001-2011 Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India

17. In the North-Eastern States as well, the number of incidents of terrorist violence has come down from 1297 in 2009 to 627 in 2011. The number of civilians killed has also come down from 264 in 2009 to 70 in 2011.

18. Current Status. Except for the serial bomb blasts in Mumbai in July, 2011 and the bomb blast in Delhi High Court in September, 2011 by and large terrorism in the country has been under control. A total of 60 terrorist elements were neutralised during 2009 to 2011. A major component of Indian Mujahidin was neutralised in January, 2012. In 2011 there was a definite decline in the number of terrorist incidents and civilian & Special Forces casualties compared to 2010. The year 2011 witnessed 30 percent decrease in the number of terrorist incidents and 34 percent and 52 percent decrease in civilian and Special Forces fatalities respectively compared to last year. One hundred terrorists were neutralised during 2011.

19. The decline trends of terrorist attacks is the offshoot of various counter terrorism strategies adopted by the central government in association with the state government to neutralise the efforts and capabilities of militants to disturb peace in the state and to contain cross border infiltration. These measures includes

(a) Strengthening of border management.

(b) Multi-tiered and multimodal deployment along international border/line of control and infiltration routes.

(d) Improved technology, weapons and equipments for Special Forces.

(e) Improved intelligence.

(f) Operational coordination.

(g) Synergizing intelligence flow to check infiltration and pro-active action against terrorists within the state.

Difference in Indian and US Method of Maintaining Data

20. It is evident that the formation of US NCTC assisted US in maintaining detailed and deliberate data on terrorist internally and globally. US NCTC not only classify this data into various categories as mentioned earlier but also uses this data in understanding terrorist organisations philosophy to pin point use of technology by terrorists, category of population/group and important facilities which are likely to be targeted by terrorist. This data bank will also be shared by other intelligence agencies of Department of Homeland Securities for activation of appropriate agency. US NCTC takes precedence in accessing terrorist data collected by intelligence agencies and shares it through WITS to maintain a strong databank on terror operativeâ€™s modules. Whereas data available in India through annual reports, published by Ministry of Home Affairs lacks these minutesâ€™ details which if made available will assist Indian security agencies in initiating/adopting proactive approaches against terrorism.

Public Opinion

21. Sample Design. A questionnaire on the NCTC, placed as appendix, was circulated to collect data on NCTC awareness. Thirty personnel were randomly selected for data collection. Quantitative analysis of data was carried out for generation of results. The details of collected data/responses are listed in subsequent tables.

TABLE 10: NCTC EXPENDED FORM

Options

Response

(a) National Counter Terrorism Centre.

(b) National Cosmetic Technology Limited.

--

(d) Not Sure.

--

TABLE 11: THE PURPOSE OF NCTC

Options

Options

Response

Fully Agree

Partially agree

Not Agree

Undecided

TABLE 14: STATE VIEWS ON ISSUES AFFECTING THEIR INTERESTS

Options

Response

Fully Agree

Partially agree

Not Agree

--

TABLE 15: REPRESENTATIVES OF SECURITY AGENCIES

IN NATIONAL AGENCY

Options

Response

Yes

Not Sure

TABLE 16: REQUIREMENT TO MODIFY INDIAN NCTC MODEL

Options

Response

Yes

--

Partially agree

Not Agree

--

Un decided

TABLE 21: NCTC WORK PRINCIPLE â€˜CENTRALISED CONTROL AND DECENTRALISED EXECUTIONâ€™

Options

Response

Fully Agree

Partially agree

Options

Response

Fully Agree

Partially agree

Not Agree

22. Quantity analysis of data reflects the following.

(a) All respondents were aware of the full form and purpose of the NCTC.

(b) All agreed that there is an urgent requirement to establish terrorism response agency at national level.

(c) 80 percent agreed that Centre-State relations should not be strained on issues like combating terrorism whereas 11 percent did not agree to the statement.

(d) 36 percent fully and 64 percent partially agreed that state should be consulted on issues affecting their interests.

(e) 86 percent agreed that national agency should have representatives from all agencies dealing with security agencies.

(f) 60 percent agreed that the Indian model of NCTC requires modification to fit into Indian security environment where as 40 percent were not sure whether proposed model require modification or not.

(g) 40 percent agreed for generating public opinion through â€˜White Paperâ€™ whereas 43 percent were partially and 17 percent not agreed.

(h) 57 percent agreed that Indian Prohibitive Act 1967 is very stringent in tackling terrorism issues.

(j) 50 percent agreed that armed forces must be made part of NCTC.

(k) 77 percent opined that the appointment of Director General NCTC should be held by a trained/ experienced officer who has exceptional ability in handling terrorism at national level. He/she can be from Armed Forces / Paramilitary/ Police/ IB etc.

(l) On command and control 73 percent opined that NCTC should work on the principle of centralised control and decentralised execution by establishing regional chapters in each states.

(m) Only 23 percent agreed that states should be given authority in demanding central forces including armed forces in tacking terrorism whereas 46 percent opined otherwise.

(n) 70 percent agreed on empowering local authority to handle regional terrorism and equipping them towards the same.

(o) 70 percent agreed that civil population needs to be trained on basic concepts of handling terrorism. They also opined that confidentiality of information should also be maintained and state should endeavour to protect the concerned individual from being attacked by terrorist groups.

(aa) On informed decision 90 percent agreed that it is every ones responsibility to support national cause and address national issues.

(ab) On Special Forces employment 33 percent opined that their involvement in handling terrorist issues would bring faster result as compared to state controlled actions.

(ac) It is reflected from the responses (60 percent) that less than 50 percent general population is unaware, whether terrorism is a State or a Central subject.

(ad) The laxity in security thinking was highlighted as 53 percent agreed that security expert/ thinkers are not effectively contributing in resolving security issues and are looking the task of security as a part time/ post retirement activity.

(ae) 53 percent opined that India is not in a condition to conceptualise/ implement NCTC model in 2012.

(af) On frequent changeover of political portfolios especially the Home Ministers, 66 percent opined that it is one of the major concerns for delayed implementation of the concept.

(ag) It is strongly (87 percent) felt that strong political will is the need of the hour and to be rigorously followed by our political leaders.

(ah) 83 percent opined that NCTC should be made an independent body duly supported by the Constitution of India.

(ai) On the tenure of NCTC Directors, 70 percent agreed that their tenure should be fixed and they should be answerable for their actions in the Court of Law.

(aj) It is opined by 90 percent that one of the Joint Directors of NCTC should be an officer from Indian Legal Services who can render legal advice to Director and can effectively represent terrorist cases in India as well as in International forum.

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Terrorist Attacks Region Wise

Global

TABLE 1: TERRORIST ATTACKS

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Attacks

TABLE 2: TERRORIST ATTACKS REGION WISE

Region

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Africa

East Asia & Pacific

Europe & Eurasia

Near East

South Asia

Western Hemisphere

TABLE 3: TYPE OF ATTACK

Type of Attack

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Armed Attack

Bombing

Kidnapping

Unknown

Fire Bombing

Assault

Suicide

--

TABLE 4: TYPE OF WEAPON USED FOR ATTACK

Type of Attack

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

IED

Firearm

Type of Attack

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Explosive

Unknown

Firebomb/Incendiary

Missile/Rocket

Grenade

Vehicle Bomb

Mortar/Artillery

TABLE 5: VICTIM TYPE

Categories

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Military/Security Forces

Government