The Fossil Fuel Dilemma

Published Date: 02 Nov 2017

Our lives are connected to the climate. Human societies have adapted to the relatively stable climate we have enjoyed since the last ice age which ended several thousand years ago. A warming climate will bring changes that can affect our water supplies, agriculture, power and transportation systems, the natural environment, and even our own health and safety.

Some changes to the climate are unavoidable. Carbon dioxide can stay in the atmosphere for nearly a century, so Earth will continue to warm in the coming decades. The warmer it gets, the greater the risk for more severe changes to the climate and Earth's system. Although it's difficult to predict the exact impacts of climate change, what's clear is that the climate we are accustomed to is no longer a reliable guide for what to expect in the future.

We can reduce the risks we will face from climate change. By making choices that reduce greenhouse gas pollution, and preparing for the changes that are already underway, we can reduce risks from climate change. Our decisions today will shape the world our children and grandchildren will live in

Climate change mitigation scenarios involve reductions in the concentrations of greenhouse gases, either by reducing their sources[3] or by increasing their sinks.

The United Nations (UN) defines mitigation in the context of climate change, as a human intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases. Examples include:

Using fossil fuels more efficiently for industrial processes or electricity generation

Switching to renewable energy (solar energy or wind power)

Improving the insulation of buildings, and

Expanding forests and other "sinks" to remove greater amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere

The International Atomic Energy Agency assert that also non-renewable sources of energy such as nuclear power should be seen as a way of reducing carbon emissions

The Stern Review identifies several ways of mitigating climate change. These include reducing demand for emissions-intensive goods and services, increasing efficiency gains, increasing use and development of low-carbon technologies, and reducing fossil fuel emissions

One of the issues often discussed in relation to climate change mitigation is the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere.

Figure : Stabilizing CO2 emissions at their present level would not stabilize its concentration in the atmosphere

Figure : Stabilizing the atmospheric concentration of CO2 at a constant level would require emissions to be effectively eliminatedAs is stated in Article 2 of the Convention, this requires that greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations are stabilized in the atmosphere at a level where ecosystems can adapt naturally to climate change, food production is not threatened, andeconomic development can proceed in a sustainable fashion. A distinction needs to be made between stabilizing GHG emissions and GHG concentrations. [15] The two are not the same. The most important GHG emitted by human activities is carbon dioxide (chemical formula: CO2).[16] Stabilizing emissions of CO2 at current levels would not lead to a stabilization in the atmospheric concentration of CO2. In fact, stabilizing emissions at current levels would result in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 continuing to rise over the 21st century and beyond.

The problem is, fossil fuels are non-renewable. They are limited in supply and will one day be depleted. There is no escaping this conclusion. Fossil fuels formed from plants and animals that lived hundreds of millions of years ago and became buried way underneath the Earth’s surface where their remains collectively transformed into the combustible materials we use for fuel.

The later fossil fuels — which provide more substandard fuels like peat or lignite coal (soft coal) — began forming as late as five million years ago in the Pliocene Period. At our rate of consumption, these fuels cannot occur fast enough to meet our current or future energy demands.

Despite the promise of alternative energy sources — more appropriately called renewable energy, collectively they provide only about 7 percent of the world’s energy needs (Source: Energy Information Agency). This means that fossil fuels, along with nuclear energy — a controversial, non-renewable energy source — are supplying 93 percent of the world’s energy resources.

Alternative energy sources

Low-carbon renewable energy replaces conventional fossil fuels in three main areas: power generation, hot water/space heating, and transport fuels. Scientists have advanced a plan to power 100% of the world's energy with wind, hydroelectric, and solar power by the year 2030

Nuclear power

Numerous studies and assessments (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, International Atomic Energy Agency and International Energy Agency) suggest that as part of a portfolio of low-carbon energy technologies, nuclear power could play a role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions

Nuclear energy, which is primarily generated by splitting atoms, only provides 6 percent of the world’s energy supplies. And it is not likely to be a major source of world energy consumption because of public pressure and the relative dangers associated with unleashing the power of the atom.

The total world energy demand is for about 400 quadrillion British Thermal Units — or BTUs — each year (Source: US Department of Energy). That’s 400,000,000,000,000,000 BTUs!

Oil, coal and natural gas supply nearly 88 percent of the world’s energy needs, or about 350 quadrillion BTUs. Of this amount, oil is king, providing about 41 percent of the world’s total energy supplies, or about 164 quadrillion BTUs. Coal provides 24 percent of the world’s energy, or 96 quadrillion BTUs, and natural gas provides the remaining 22 percent, or 88 quadrillion 

The Fossil Fuel Dilemma

The impact of global warming on the environment is extensive and affects many areas. In the Arctic and Antarctica, warmer temperatures are causing the ice to melt which will increase sea level and change the composition of the surrounding sea water. Rising sea levels alone can impede processes ranging from settlement, agriculture and fishing both commercially and recreationally. Air pollution is also a direct result of the use of fossil fuels, resulting in smog and the degradation of human health and plant growth.

The oil, coal and natural gas companies know these are serious problems. But until our renewable energy sources become more viable as major energy providers, the only alternative for our global population is for these companies to continue tapping into the fossil fuel reserves to meet our energy needs.

Many oil companies, for example, are involved in the development of more reliable renewable energy technologies. For example, British Petroleum Company, today known as BP, has become one of the world’s leading providers of solar energy through its BP Solar division, a business that they are planning on eclipsing their oil production business in the near future.

Some estimates say our fossil fuel reserves will be depleted within 50 years, while others say it will be 100-120 years. Nobody really knows when the last drop of oil, lump of coal or cubic foot of natural gas will be collected from the Earth. All of it will depend on how well we manage our energy demands along with how well we can develop and use renewable energy sources.

And here is one very important factor: population growth. As the population grows upwards towards nine billion people over the next 50 years, the world’s energy demands will increase proportionately. Not only will it be important for renewable energy to keep up with the increasing population growth, but it must outpace not only these demands but begin replacing fossil fuel energy production if we are to meet future energy needs. By the year 2020, world energy consumption is projected to increase by 50 percent, or an additional 207 quadrillion BTUs. If the global consumption of renewable energy sources remains constant, the world’s available fossil fuel reserves will be consumed in 104 years or early in the 22nd century.(Source: US Department of Energy) Clearly, renewable energy resources will play an increasingly vital role in the power generation mix over the next century.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the primary greenhouse gas emitted through human activities. In 2010, CO2 accounted for about 84% of all U.S. greenhouse gas emissions from human activities. Carbon dioxide is naturally present in the atmosphere as part of the Earth's carbon cycle (the natural circulation of carbon among the atmosphere, oceans, soil, plants, and animals). Human activities are altering the carbon cycle--both by adding more CO2 to the atmosphere and by influencing the ability of natural sinks, like forests, to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. While CO2 emissions come from a variety of natural sources, human-related emissions are responsible for the increase that has occurred in the atmosphere since the industrial revolution [ NRC (2010). Advancing the Science of Climate Change . National Research Council. The National Academies Press, Washington, DC, USA.]

The main human activity that emits CO2 is the combustion of fossil fuels (coal, natural gas, and oil) for energy and transportation, although certain industrial processes and land-use changes also emit CO2. The main sources of CO2emissions in the United States are described below.

Global Emissions by Gas

Pie chart that shows different types of gases. 57 percent is from carbon dioxide fossil fuel use. 17 percent is from carbon dioxide deforestation, decay of biomass, etc. 3 percent is from other carbon dioxide sources. 14 percent is from methane. 8 percent is from nitrous oxide and 1 percent is from fluorinated gases.

Carbon dioxide (CO2)

Methane (CH4)

Nitrous oxide (N2O)

Fluorinated gases (F-gases)

Global Emissions by Source

Energy SupplyPie chart that shows different sectors. 26 percent is from energy supply; 13 percent is from transport; 8 percent is from residential and commercial buildings; 19 percent is from industry; 14 percent is from agriculture; 17 percent is from forestry; and 3 percent is from waste and wastewater.

Industry

Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry

Agriculture

Transportation

Commercial and Residential Buildings

Waste and Wastewater

Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels have significantly increased since 1900. Emissions increased by over 16 times between 1900 and 2008 and by about 1.5 times between 1990 and 2008.Line graph of global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels for 1900 through 2008. The line graph shows a slow increase from about 2,500 teragrams of carbon dioxide emissions in 1900 to about 5,000 teragrams of carbon dioxide emissions in 1950. After 1950, the increase in carbon dioxide emissions is more rapid, reaching approximately 32,000 teragrams of carbon dioxide in 2008.

Here are some eye-popping statistics from the Energy Information Administration:

3.2 billion tons of additional carbon dioxide annually.

More than 2.5 million metric tons of carbon is produced by power plants.

98 percent of U.S. energy production comes from non-renewable sources, a.k.a. fossil fuels.

The U.S. consumes more than 20 million barrels of oil per day, with more than one million tons of coal consumed annually as well.

The increased awareness surrounding global warming and the importance of renewable energy is vital, but the fact remains that fossil fuel production and consumption has hundreds of years of history, and the use of renewable energy is still in its infancy.

Table 1. Results of the assessment of climate change science

Global carbon dioxide emissions have risen 3.3% per year since 1950.

Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide have risen 0.4% per year since 1972.

Global average temperatures have increased 0.3 to 0.6 degrees C since the late 1800's.

The 1900's are at least as warm as any century since the earliest evidence (1400's).

Recent years have been among the warmest since the 1860's.

Nighttime temperatures over land have increased more than daytime temperatures.

Global sea level has risen between 10 and 25 cm (4-10 inches) over the past 100 years.

Dust and sulfur dioxide (from coal used to produce electricity) can reduce the warming influence of carbon dioxide in some locations.

Table 3. "Best" guesses of potential future climate change based on climate models

Average global temperatures are likely to rise 2 degrees C by 2100 (Range: 1 degree to 3.5 degrees C).

Average sea level is expected to rise 50 cm (20 inches) by 2100 (25% lower than that predicted in 1990).

Increases (decreases) in the occurrence of extremely hot (cold) days.

Substantial changes in the hydrological cycle will lead to increases and decreases in droughts and floods, depending on the region.

There is little evidence that there will be increased activity in severe storms such as cyclones.

While science has recently concluded that human activity is influencing current climate, there is much less certainty about future climate change and its impacts. The uncertainty results in part from the fact that the models used to predict future climates are based on atmospheric science that is still evolving, and also from uncertain estimates of the growth rate in carbon dioxide emissions and uncertain estimates of the size of carbon sinks (i.e., forests and oceans) and potential feedback loops. Not only is the future path of climate change uncertain, but the impact on natural systems contains uncertainty of its own. Economic estimates of damages and costs contain their own uncertainty, but they also provide likely bounds for the extent of the economic damages and costs.

Despite the uncertainty, climate change policy is being developed. Governments around the world are reacting to the perceived threat with policies that may affect each of us. These policies may include large reductions in fossil fuel dependence, given that such a large portion of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is predicted to arise from human emissions.

Sun, wind and water are perfect energy sources. They are non-polluting, renewable and efficient. Not only do the use of renewable energy sources help reduce global carbon dioxide emissions, but they also add some much-needed flexibility to the energy resource mix by decreasing our dependence on limited reserves of fossil fuels.

Essentially, these renewable energy sources create their own energy. The object is to capture and harness their mechanical power and convert it to electricity in the most effective and productive manner possible. There’s more than enough renewable energy sources to supply all of the world’s energy needs forever; however, the challenge is to develop the capability to effectively and economically capture, store and use the energy when needed.

The ultimate source of energy is the sun, but making it available is much easier said than done. It would be cost prohibitive to make solar energy mainstream for major world consumption in the near future. The technology is pretty much ready for many business and consumer applications, but it would be way too expensive to replace the current energy infrastructure used for fossil fuel energy. Still, according to the European Photovoltaic Industry Association, solar power could provide energy for more than one billion people by 2020 and 26 percent of global energy needs by 2040.

Wind and hydroelectric power, which have been used effectively for generations, are also rapidly growing energy markets. The principle behind both is that the force of the wind and water currents are passed through turbines which convert their energy into electricity.

Biomass energy, or energy from burning plants and other organic matter, is one of man’s earliest sources of energy. Wood was once the main source of power for heat, and it still is in many developing countries.

Perhaps the best solution to our growing energy challenges comes from The Union of Concerned Scientists: "No single solution can meet our society’s future energy needs. The solution instead will come from a family of diverse energy technologies that share a common thread — they do not deplete our natural resources or destroy our environment."

http://www.renewablepowernews.com/wp-content/uploads/treelightweb.jpg

http://www.renewablepowernews.com/wp-content/uploads/rene.jpg

Only around 7 percent of the world’s total energy is provided via renewable energy. This does controversially mean that non-renewable energy sources like nuclear or fossil fuel represent 93 percent of the global supply of energy.

Renewable energy resource development will result in new jobs for people and less oil we have to buy from foreign countries. According to the federal government, America spent $109 billion to import oil in 2000. If we fully develop self-renewing resources, we will keep the money at home to help the economy.

Unlike fossil fuels, which dirties the atmosphere, renewable energy has less impact on the environment Renewable energy production has some drawbacks, mainly associated with the use of large of tracts of land that affects animal habitats and outdoor scenery. Renewable energy development will result in jobs and less oil imported from foreign countries.

As fossil fuel prices rise, as oil insecurity deepens, and as concerns about pollution and climate instability cast a shadow over the future of coal, a new world energy economy is emerging. The old energy economy, fueled by oil, coal, and natural gas, is being replaced with an economy powered by wind, solar, and geothermal energy. The Earth’s renewable energy resources are vast and available to be tapped through visionary initiatives. Our civilization needs to embrace renewable energy on a scale and at a pace we’ve never seen before.

Market trends suggest that the demand for energy resources will rise dramatically over the next 25 years:

Global demand for all energy sources is forecast to grow by 57% over the next 25 years.

U.S. demand for all types of energy is expected to increase by 31% within 25 years.

By 2030, 56% of the world’s energy use will be in Asia.

Electricity demand in the U.S. will grow by at least 40% by 2032.

New power generation equal to nearly 300 (1,000MW) power plants will be needed to meet electricity demand by 2030.

Currently, 50% of U.S. electrical generation relies on coal, a fossil fuel; while 85% of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions result from energy-consuming activities supported by fossil fuels.

[ Sources: Annual Energy Outlook (DOE/EIA-0383(2007)), International Energy Outlook 2007 (DOE/EIA-0484(2007), Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2005 (April 2007) (EPA 430-R-07-002) ]

If energy prices also rise dramatically due to increased demand and constrained supply, business impacts could include:

Reduced profits due to high operating costs.

Decline of sales of energy-using products.

Loss of competitiveness in energy intensive businesses.

Disruptions in supply chains as suppliers are unable to meet cost obligations or go bankrupt.

With energy demand projected to keep rising, the global energy challenge is set to become increasingly complex

Energy demand is linked to population and economic growth. The world’s population is projected to increase by 1.4 billion over the next 20 years, while its real income is likely to grow by 100% over the same period. This combination of factors is expected to increase world primary energy consumption by as much as 40% over the next 20 years with non-OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) energy consumption as much as 70% higher by 2030. 

Addressing the global challenge of climate change will require the efforts of governments, industry and individuals

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), warming of the climate system is happening and is caused mainly by the increase in greenhouse gas emissions and the increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Results from models assessed by the IPCC suggest that to stand a reasonable chance of limiting warming to no more than 2ËšC, global emissions should peak before 2020 and be cut by between 50-85% by 2050. We project that with known and probable policy and technology developments, global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions may be 28% higher in 2030 than they are today, partly as a consequence of coal use in rapidly-growing economies.

Figure : World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, 2001-2025World carbon dioxide emissions are expected to increase by 1.9 percent annually between 2001 and 2025 (Figure 5). Much of the increase in these emissions is expected to occur in the developing world where emerging economies, such as China and India, fuel economic development with fossil energy. Developing countries’ emissions are expected to grow above the world average at 2.7 percent annually between 2001 and 2025; and surpass emissions of industrialized countries near 2018. Figure 5 is a line graph showing world carbon dioxide emissions by region from 2001-2025.

Assessments generally suggest that the Earth’s climate has warmed over the past century and that human activity affecting the atmosphere is likely an important driving factor. A National Research Council study dated May 2001 stated, "Greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earth’s atmosphere as a result of human activities, causing surface air temperatures and sub-surface ocean temperatures to rise. Temperatures are, in fact, rising. The changes observed over the last several decades are likely mostly due to human activities, but we cannot rule out that some significant part of these changes is also a reflection of natural variability."

Figure 1 is a line graph showing the trends in atmospheric concentrations and anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide.

Levels of several important greenhouse gases have increased by about 25 percent since large-scale industrialization began around 150 years ago (Figure 1). During the past 20 years, about three-quarters of human-made carbon dioxide emissions were from burning fossil fuels.

Many greenhouse gases stay in the atmosphere for long periods of time. As a result, even if emissions stopped increasing, atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations would continue to increase and remain elevated for hundreds of years. Moreover, if we stabilized concentrations and the composition of today's atmosphere remained steady surface air temperatures would continue to warm. This is because the oceans, which store heat, take many decades to fully respond to higher greenhouse gas concentrations. The ocean's response to higher greenhouse gas concentrations and higher temperatures will continue to impact climate over the next several decades to hundreds of years.

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/images/science/ScenarioCO2-large.jpg

Because it is difficult to project far-off future emissions and other human factors that influence climate, scientists use a range of scenarios using various assumptions about future economic, social, technological, and environmental conditions.

Future Temperature Changes

Average global temperatures are expected to increase by 2°F to 11.5°F by 2100, depending on the level of future greenhouse gas emissions, and the outcomes from various climate models.http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/images/science/ScenarioGlobalTemp.jpg

By 2100, global average temperature is expected to warm at least twice as much as it has during the last 100 years.

Ground-level air temperatures are expected to continue to warm more rapidly over land than oceans.

Some parts of the world are projected to see larger temperature increases than the global average.